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RELEASE: Obama Leads in OnSight/Keating Poll

Obama leads Colorado in first poll since Romney announced Ryan pick

Live interview survey shows Obama has significant advantage among women and unaffiliated voters.

DENVER _ President Barack Obama holds a four-point lead over GOP challenger Mitt Romney in the first poll of Colorado voters since U.S Rep. Paul Ryan joined the Romney ticket.

Obama leads with 48 percent to Romney’s 44 percent in the first of a series of live-interview tracking polls to be released by Keating Research, Inc. and Onsight Public Affairs leading up to the November election.

Read the poll

There is no doubt that the Presidential race in Colorado will depend on voter turnout.

“Clearly, Romney’s choice of Ryan as his running mate has not provided an impact on the Presidential race in Colorado,” said Chris Keating, who is regarded as one of the most accurate pollsters in the West. “But this is a close race that remains just within the margin of error. There is no doubt that the Presidential race in Colorado will depend on voter turnout.”

Obama’s advantage in Colorado is due largely to a strong showing among women and Hispanic voters. The President leads Romney 51 percent to 41 percent among women, and that lead balloons to 15 points among younger women. And Hispanic voters break more than two to one for Obama with 65 percent favoring the President while just 32 percent favor Romney.

Romney claimed an advantage among Colorado men with 48 percent to Obama’s 45 percent. He maintains a one-point lead among whites with 47 percent.

Both candidates have successfully solidified their bases with 90 percent of Democrats favoring Obama and 87 percent of Republicans favoring Romney. But Obama is currently winning key unaffiliated voters with 50 percent favoring him compared to 36 percent favoring Romney.

“As we saw in the 2008 Presidential race, unaffiliated voters in Colorado are often the deciding factor in close races because they represent nearly one-third of voters statewide,” Keating said.

The poll is based on 500 live telephone interviews conducted August 21-22 among likely November 2012 voters in Colorado. For this sample of 500 interviews, the worst case margin of error at the 95% level is plus or minus 4.4 percent. Respondents were chosen at random from a list of voters with phone numbers, including cell phones.

Read the poll.

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