What are Coloradans thinking?

What are Coloradans thinking?

A new statewide poll of 503 active voters shows a majority of Coloradans give high marks to their home state and its Democratic governor, and have strong reservations about President Donald Trump and many of the polices and issues put forward during his first 50 days in office.

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Keating Research is recognized by Democrats and Republicans alike as providing extremely accurate polling in Colorado.

Keating Research is recognized by Democrats and Republicans alike as providing extremely accurate polling in Colorado.

The Keating/OnSight poll provides informative, accurate results using live-interviewer telephone (cell and landline) surveys and was Colorado’s most accurate in the 2016 Presidential election, predicting Hillary Clinton would win the state by 5 points in Colorado.

What follows are highlights are from the new Keating/OnSight Colorado statewide poll conducted March 8-13, 2017:

Voters are optimistic about the direction of state and Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper

By nearly 2-to-1, Colorado voters say the state is heading in the right direction (58% right direction – 32% wrong direction), which is certainly a reflection of their positive feelings toward Colorado’s second-term Governor, John Hickenlooper. By roughly the same margin, Colorado voters are favorable toward Hickenlooper (57% favorable – 33% unfavorable).

President Donald Trump is not well-liked

Donald Trump, who lost Colorado to Hillary Clinton (43% to 48%), remains unpopular in Colorado (43% favorable – 55% unfavorable), including 45% of respondents who hold a “very unfavorable” view toward him. Opinions of Trump are distorted by voters’ partisan lenses – Democrats strongly dislike Trump (12% favorable – 87% unfavorable) and Republicans very much like him (83% favorable – 16% unfavorable), while the key voting block of unaffiliated voters are hostile territory for Trump (32% favorable – 64% unfavorable).

Trump’s presidency has gotten off to a decidedly rocky start, as nearly 5-of-10 Colorado voters think he is doing a lousy job: grading his performance with an F (38%) or D (10%).  A minority of respondents – 36% – give Trump an A (19%) or B (17%).

Honesty is a key characteristic for any politician, and a majority – 52% – of Colorado voters think President Trump is “dishonest and tells lies”, while a minority – 40% – think he is “honest and tells the truth.” Suburban voters show a decided lack of confidence in Trump a majority (55%) of voters in the five suburban counties of Arapahoe, Adams, Jefferson, Douglas and Broomfield say Trump is “dishonest and tells lies.”

Trump’s problems are dragging down Colorado Republican Sen. Cory Gardner

Currently, Colorado voters are divided on Sen. Cory Gardner (39% favorable – 38% unfavorable), compared to a more positive opinion of him before Trump was elected in July, 2016 (45% favorable – 28% unfavorable).

Colorado’s Democratic U.S. Senator Michael Bennet remains popular with 51% viewing him favorably compared to 29% unfavorable, which is the same as before Trump was elected in July, 2016 (51% favorable – 28% unfavorable).

Colorado voters disagree with what President Trump is saying about the media and President Obama

  • A majority – 62% – of Colorado voters do not believe that President Obama had the wires tapped in Trump Tower, while 20% believe it.
  • A majority – 57% – of Colorado voters disagree with President Trump’s statement that the news media is the enemy of the people, while 37% agree with it.

President Trump’s anti-immigrant positions are out of step with Colorado

  • A majority – 60% -– of Colorado voters oppose President Trump’s plan to build a wall on the Mexican border to keep out illegal immigrants, while 35% support the idea. Trump’s wall is opposed by a majority of men (53% oppose) and women (67% oppose), younger age 18-49 (71% oppose) and older age 50+ (51% oppose), and white (59% oppose) and Hispanics (70% oppose).
  • A majority — 53% – of Colorado voters oppose Trump’s travel ban that prevents citizens from Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen from entering the United States, while 42% support Trump’s new travel ban. Trump’s travel ban is particularly disliked by millennial voters age 18-34 (76% oppose the travel ban), while those age 65+ are supportive (56% support).

Colorado voters aren’t convinced Trump’s campaign communicated with Russia to influence outcome of the election

  • 37% of Colorado voters believe Donald Trump’s campaign was in communication with Russia in order to influence the Presidential election, while nearly half (47%) say they were not, and 16% are unsure.

Colorado voters don’t want to repeal Obamacare

When asked about the Obamacare replacement plan recently released by Republicans in Congress, by a 13-point margin Colorado voters prefer to keep Obamacare (54%) rather than repeal Obamacare (41%). Attitudes toward Obamacare closely mirror the Presidential election – Clinton voters prefer to keep Obamacare (91%) and Trump voters prefer to repeal Obamacare (84%).

Colorado Voters want to increase the share of energy that comes from clean, renewable sources

8-of-10 voters say they favor increasing the share of Colorado’s energy that comes from clean, renewable sources like wind and solar power in order to create jobs and economic opportunity in rural Colorado, while only 14% oppose it. Increasing clean, renewable energy is a pure non-partisan issue, favored overwhelmingly by Democrats (95% favor), Unaffiliated (84% favor) and by two-thirds of Republicans.

Keating Research is recognized by Democrats and Republicans alike as providing extremely accurate polling in Colorado.

This polling data is based on 503 live-interviewer telephone surveys conducted March 8-13, 2017 among “active” voters statewide in Colorado. For this sample of 503 interviews the worst case margin of error at the 95% level is plus or minus 4.4%. Respondents were chosen at random from a list of voters with phone numbers: 261 surveys (52%) were conducted on cell-phone and 242 surveys (48%) were conducted on a land line.

Coloradans will be asked to restore presidential primary, open taxpayer-financed primaries to unaffiliated voters

Coloradans will be asked to restore presidential primary, open taxpayer-financed primaries to unaffiliated voters

Colorado voters will be asked this fall to re-institute a presidential primary and to allow unaffiliated voters to participate in taxpayer-financed primary elections without choosing a party.

The measures were approved for the ballot today by the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office after verifying that enough voter signatures had been collected.

“Colorado voters value independence and want elections that encourage participation,” said Kent Thiry, Let Colorado Vote Campaign Chair and CEO of DaVita. “Only 5% of voters participated in the March caucuses, which is not a sign of a healthy democracy. Our initiatives will fix that and allow more than 1 million unaffiliated voters to participate in elections that they currently pay for, but thus far have been excluded from.”

The two measures would change state law (as opposed to amending the constitution):

  • Initiative 140, which will restore a presidential primary and allow unaffiliated voters to participate without affiliating with a party;
  • Initiative 98, which will allow the state’s more than 1 million unaffiliated voters to participate in taxpayer-financed primary elections without affiliating with a party. 

“We believe, strongly, that allowing unaffiliated voters to participate in taxpayer funded primary elections is a matter of fairness,” said John Hereford, Let Colorado Vote Vice Chair and founder of Oak Leaf Energy Partners. “Engaging a broader cross-section of the voting spectrum in primaries will make our politicians more responsive to the center and not just the extreme wings of their respective parties.”

Colorado leads the nation in the growth of unaffiliated – or independent – voters since 2008, and they now make up 36% of all voters in the state.

But unaffiliated voters in Colorado face barriers that don’t exist in most other states. Colorado is among a minority of states that excludes unaffiliated voters from taxpayer-financed primary elections, and history shows that this system discourages participation.

Turnout for Colorado’s primary elections has been dropping since 2010, and just 1 in 5 voters participated in the state’s June primary.

The current primary does not include the presidential race, which is handled through a caucus system with preference polls rather than official ballots. Fewer than 190,000 of the state’s 3 million voters participated in the March caucuses.

Other campaign Vice Chairs are: Kelly Brough, President/CEO of the Denver Metro Chamber; Don Childears, President/CEO of the Colorado Bankers Association; Cole Finegan, partner at Hogan Lovells US; and Mike Kopp, executive director of Colorado Concern.

Let Colorado Vote is supported by a diverse array of individuals and organizations, including: Gov. John Hickenlooper; former Govs. Bill Ritter, Bill Owens, Roy Romer and Dick Lamm; former U.S. Sens. Mark Udall and Hank Brown; Colorado Springs Mayor John Suthers; former Transportation Secretary Federico Peña; and civic and business groups, including: the Denver Metro Chamber, Colorado Concern, the Boulder Chamber of Commerce, Club 20, the Colorado Association of Realtors, the Colorado Contractors Association, the Metro Mayors Caucus, Progressive 15, the Rocky Mountain Farmers Union and the Vail Valley Partnership.

For additional information, visit: www.letcovote2016.com

Clinton holds 10-point lead over Trump among likely voters in new Colorado poll

Clinton holds 10-point lead over Trump among likely voters in new Colorado poll

Hillary Clinton holds a 10-point lead over Donald Trump among likely November 2016 Colorado voters, according to a Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs presidential tracking poll released today.

In a matchup of the post-Super Tuesday front-runners for the Democratic and Republican nominations, Clinton leads Trump 49% to 39%, with 13% undecided.

“Clinton lost here last night, but moved closer to the nomination and is well-positioned with a 10-point lead in this swing state,” said Mike Melanson, founding partner of OnSight Public Affairs. “Looking at a November electorate, she consolidates the party base and picks up the other key categories needed to win.”

In a head-to-head matchup against Trump, the former Secretary of State receives support from nearly 9 in 10 Democrats. In addition, she has overwhelming support among the groups that are key to winning general elections in Colorado: Hispanics (+68% over Trump), voters ages 18-49 (+26% over Trump), and among women (+25% over Trump).

The statewide survey of 450 likely general-election voters was conducted Feb. 26-29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6%.*

Keating-OnSight_poll-graphic_030216-01

“Younger Colorado voters may be ‘feeling the Bern’ now, but they’re clearly ready for Hillary in November,” said pollster Chris Keating. “In comparison, Trump has only lukewarm support (74%) among Colorado Republicans and is nowhere close to where he needs to be among other demographics.” (Read the polling memo.)

In swing-state Colorado, candidates routinely compete for the support of unaffiliated voters in November — a group that breaks Clinton’s way by a 16-point (51% to 35%) margin.

The candidates are statistically tied among older voters age 50+ (Trump 44% – Clinton 41%).

Support for action on Supreme Court

On another closely watched public-policy issue, a majority of respondents said the Supreme Court vacancy created following the death of Justice Antonin Scalia should be filled before the November election.

A majority (52%) of voters supported taking action now, vs. 37% who said the decision should be left to the next president. The majority comes with support from 75% of Democrats and 59% of unaffiliateds. Roughly two-thirds of Republicans (67%) say the appointment should come after a new president takes office.

Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs was recognized by Democrats and Republicans alike as providing extremely accurate tracking polling during the 2012 presidential election.

*Numbers may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. 

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A new crop of campaign logos

A new crop of campaign logos

From Jeb! to Hillary, this campaign season is bringing us a crop of new campaign logos to admire and to scorn.

Bright colors, corporate vibes, and a trend towards first-name-only branding define the direction of this batch.

The flexible graphic identity from Obama’s 2008 campaign is now regarded as archetypal political design. The combination of a bright primary-color palette, the sunrise O and bold typography implied a confident candidate with a clear vision for the future. Whether President Obama could ever live up to this image, his campaign’s savvy and powerful use of design set the bar for today’s presidential candidates. While none of 2016’s campaigns rise to the level of Obama 2008, some intriguing ideas and shared visual themes have emerged from the field.

Read more analysis at Washington Post.

Bringing climate to the forefront of Colorado politics

What do farmers markets, pumpkin carving, fog machines and smokestacks have in common? All were utilized by the OnSight team in the name of bringing climate change to the forefront for Colorado voters. This past fall, OnSight teamed up with NextGen Climate Colorado with the goal of making the issue of climate one of the top issues voters consider at the polls. How? By attracting earned media, organizing a stunt or two, and packaging creative content.

Over the course of nearly four months, the communications team was able to introduce and establish NextGen Climate with Colorado’s press corps, create an online presence and produce a steady stream of social media, blog content and videos, and develop and deliver localized messaging in regards to the 2014 senate race. During this time, the NextGen Climate Colorado team was able to establish itself as a serious player in Colorado politics and regularly influenced questions asked of candidates during debates and in coverage altogether. On multiple occasions outlined below, the team rose above the campaign season noise to receive earned-media attention amid stiff competition for coverage — notably during the Denver EPA hearings, the Club 20 Debates, with Cory Gardner’s House of Deception which coincided with Michelle Obama’s visit in Fort Collins, and the placement of the state director’s op-ed in the Denver Post.

Here’s a look at some of our favorite for NextGen Climate Colorado:

Videos:

News Clips:

9News: EPA hearings turn Denver into political stage

Denver Post: Demand candidates take action on climate issues