Math

The Keating/OnSight polls won Curtis Hubbards “closest to the pin” award.

Colorado was in the cross hairs this election cycle, and OnSight Public Affairs picked a winning slate of candidates and issues to back.

Amendment S

Getting voters to understand the Amendment — which sets out to modernize government so that we hire and promote the best employees, increase accountability and help veterans who serve our country — was an uphill battle. A wonky and technical issue, it took a creative integrated campaign of online, radio, and billboard ads to get voters educated.

But with a unanimous vote of approval from the state legislature, endorsements from nearly every newspaper in the state, and an outpouring of support from both the business and non-profit community, Coloradans voted to pass Amendment S by a double-digit margin!

A win for veterans and the efficiency of our state government!

Polling

OnSight Public Affairs worked with Keating Research to run a series of polls leading up to the election. Cited by the NYTimes’ Nate Silver the day before the election, the OnSight/Keating polls were roundly recognized as among the most accurate, getting kudos from both Fox31’s Eli Stokols:

In Colorado, conservatives dismissing the work of pollster Chris Keating on the grounds that he’s worked for Hickenlooper and Udall, overlooked a series of polls that were spot-on. A day before the election, Keating had Obama leading Romney 50-46; it was a four-point win for Obama, 52-48, in the end.

And The Denver Post’s Curtis Hubbard, who gave our polls his Gold Medal award.

Ed Perlmutter

A series of web videos and online fundraising efforts managed by OnSight helped propel incumbent Ed Perlmutter to a 12 point victory in the race to represent the 7th Congressional District. Despite re-districting which made the race more competitive, and beer magnate Joe Coors’ (who poured millions of dollars of his personal fortune into the race) best efforts to discredit Ed with ads that made national attention for the dishonesty, Ed Perlmutter’s focus on positive advertising and his record of working hard to represent his constituents served him well in his campaign.

Congratulations to Ed, as both fans and constituents we’re excited to see you remain in office!

Punditry

Throughout the campaign season, with Colorado in the media spotlight as both a swing state and the host of the first of the Presidential debates, OnSight’s electoral expertise was in demand:

  • “When you really dig into it, we’re as purple as ever,” said Democrat strategist Mike Melanson of OnSight Public Affairs, who has managed campaigns for Sen. Mark Udall and Gov. John Hickenlooper. “Overall, it might be a Democratic night. But you know what? In two years, it will probably be a Republican night. We’re just that kind of state.” Colorado turns a little bluer, but no one party in line to dominate (Denver Post, 11/7/2012)
  • “Mike Melanson, a Democratic strategist who helped elect Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, said undecided voters tend to see both sides of issues, abhor partisanship and seek a candidate who feels the same way.” Poll of Western undecideds shows import of Denver debate (LA Times, 10/3/2012)
  • “We’re Western Democrats. We’re very different from East Coast Democrats,” said Mike Melanson, a Democratic operative in Colorado and senior partner at OnSight Public Affairs. “And as long as you brand yourself in that tradition, then you, as a Democrat, can do well.” National trends at work in battleground Colorado (10/2/2012)

 

Obama up four in Colorado on the eve of Election Day

Obama up four in Colorado on the eve of Election Day

 The President has maintained an edge over Romney in Colorado on support from women, Hispanic voters and unaffiliated voters.

Read the poll

DENVER _ President Barack Obama leads Gov. Mitt Romney 50 percent to 46 percent in the last of four live-interview polls tracking the presidential race in Colorado.

The poll – conducted Friday, Saturday, and Sunday – is the latest in a series of tracking polls released by Keating Research, Inc. and OnSight Public Affairs. It marks the first time the President has reached the 50 percent mark since tracking began in August.

“Obama’s advantage with key demographic groups like unaffiliated voters and women has given him a narrow but sturdy lead at the end of this election cycle,” said pollster Chris Keating. “It certainly appears that Colorado will come down to which campaign can turn out voters.”

More than two-thirds, or 69 percent, of Colorado voters have already cast ballots, and among those early voters, Obama has a 5-point advantage with 51 percent supporting Obama and 46 percent supporting Romney. The President leads 48 percent to 45 percent with voters who said they had not yet cast a ballot.

In a state where more voters are registered unaffiliated than Democrat or Republican, Obama leads by 25 points among unaffiliated voters with 58 percent backing the President and 33 percent supporting Romney. Unaffiliated voters are seen a key factor in this race because candidates have locked up support with their base voters. Registered Democrats give 92 percent support to Obama with 5 percent supporting Romney while 92 percent of Republicans favor Romney to just 6 percent who favor Obama.

The President is also getting overwhelming support from Hispanic voters, with 73 percent support to Romney’s 21 percent support. Romney leads by 5 points with white voters with 50 percent favoring the GOP candidate while 45 percent support Obama.

Obama has maintained a significant lead among women in Colorado, and he holds a double-digit lead on the eve of Election Day. Fifty-three percent of women favor Obama, while 43 percent support Romney. Romney leads Obama among men 48 percent to 47 percent.

Previous OnSight/Keating polls this cycle showed Obama maintaining a narrow lead:

For this sample of 603 interviews, the worst-case margin of error at the 95% level is plus or minus 4.0 percent.  Respondents were chosen at random from a list of likely voters with phone numbers, including cell-phones.

Read the latest Poll.

Posted 11/5/2012
Amendment S is the One Thing We Can All Agree On

Amendment S is the One Thing We Can All Agree On

Governor John Hickenlooper and former governor Bill Owens have teamed up to make sure Coloradans vote Yes on Amendment S. Along with billboards, a web site, and social media outreach, the campaign recorded and released a series of radio ads.

Take a listen:

Rockies
Airplane

The ads are playing on radio stations all over Colorado. For a look behind the scenes with the talent, check out the outtakes reel: