The President has maintained an edge over Romney in Colorado on support from women, Hispanic voters and unaffiliated voters.
DENVER _ President Barack Obama leads Gov. Mitt Romney 50 percent to 46 percent in the last of four live-interview polls tracking the presidential race in Colorado.
The poll – conducted Friday, Saturday, and Sunday – is the latest in a series of tracking polls released by Keating Research, Inc. and OnSight Public Affairs. It marks the first time the President has reached the 50 percent mark since tracking began in August.
“Obama’s advantage with key demographic groups like unaffiliated voters and women has given him a narrow but sturdy lead at the end of this election cycle,” said pollster Chris Keating. “It certainly appears that Colorado will come down to which campaign can turn out voters.”
More than two-thirds, or 69 percent, of Colorado voters have already cast ballots, and among those early voters, Obama has a 5-point advantage with 51 percent supporting Obama and 46 percent supporting Romney. The President leads 48 percent to 45 percent with voters who said they had not yet cast a ballot.
In a state where more voters are registered unaffiliated than Democrat or Republican, Obama leads by 25 points among unaffiliated voters with 58 percent backing the President and 33 percent supporting Romney. Unaffiliated voters are seen a key factor in this race because candidates have locked up support with their base voters. Registered Democrats give 92 percent support to Obama with 5 percent supporting Romney while 92 percent of Republicans favor Romney to just 6 percent who favor Obama.
The President is also getting overwhelming support from Hispanic voters, with 73 percent support to Romney’s 21 percent support. Romney leads by 5 points with white voters with 50 percent favoring the GOP candidate while 45 percent support Obama.
Obama has maintained a significant lead among women in Colorado, and he holds a double-digit lead on the eve of Election Day. Fifty-three percent of women favor Obama, while 43 percent support Romney. Romney leads Obama among men 48 percent to 47 percent.
Previous OnSight/Keating polls this cycle showed Obama maintaining a narrow lead:
For this sample of 603 interviews, the worst-case margin of error at the 95% level is plus or minus 4.0 percent. Respondents were chosen at random from a list of likely voters with phone numbers, including cell-phones.
The advantage among unaffiliated voters is also significant because both candidates appear to have secured their party’s base voters. Registered Democrats favor Obama 90 percent to 6 percent while Republicans favor Romney 87 percent to 7 percent.
“In Colorado, it always comes down to who can appeal to the unaffiliated voters,” said Chris Keating of Keating Research, Inc. “They are now the largest voting block in the state and the candidate who wins them over is almost certain to take the state.”
. Only our September poll has shown an advantage outside the margin of error.
About one-third of those polled said they had already cast a ballot, and Obama held a 9-point advantage, 53 percent to Romney’s 44 percent, among early voters.
“Obama has held a thin but steady margin in the polls, but the difference in this race will likely come down to the campaign can get its people to cast votes,” said Mike Melanson of Onsight Public Affairs. “You can expect to see the campaigns concentrate on Colorado and a few other swing states as Election Day draws near.”
Obama leads by 10 points in the bellwether regions of Arapahoe and Jefferson counties. He continues to hold a significant advantage among women with 52 percent supporting him while 41 percent support Romney. The President also holds a nearly 4-to-1 advantage among Hispanic voters.
But Romney has made gains with several voting blocks since the conventions. He now holds a seven-point advantage among men, with 50 percent supporting the former Massachusetts governor and 43 percent supporting the President. The candidates had been virtually tied among men in August.
Romney has also expanded his lead among white voters, leading Obama 52 percent to 42 percent.
Voters said they favored Obama 46 percent to Romney’s 41 percent when it came to which candidate they thought of as “someone you can trust.”
This polling data is based on 502 live telephone interviews conducted October 23-24 among likely November 2012 voters statewide in Colorado. For this sample of 502 interviews the worst-case margin of error at the 95 percent level is plus or minus 4.4 percent. Respondents were chosen at random from a list of voters with phone numbers, including cell-phones.
Governor John Hickenlooper and former governor Bill Owens have teamed up to make sure Coloradans vote Yes on Amendment S. Along with billboards, a web site, and social media outreach, the campaign recorded and released a series of radio ads.
The national media spotlight turned on Denver in early October, as the first Presidential Debate got underway at the University of Denver. Looking for new angles and local expertise, reporters turned to OnSight Public Affairs’ Mike Melanson for information and insight.
Quoted in the LA Times and at NBCPolitics.com, Melanson’s pithy and incisive commentary about the character of western voters helped bring the rest of the nation up to speed on the tenor of the contest in this battleground state.
With the election only weeks away and the candidates in what — at the time of this writing– appears to be a statistical dead heat, continue to watch this space for new polling data and insight into what it all means.
The campaign is focused on passing Amendment S. Colorado’s personnel system, which affects nearly every business and private citizen in the state, has not been updated in more than 40 years. Amendment S will modernize government so that we hire and promote the best employees, increase accountability and help veterans who serve our country.
People who are interested in helping the measure pass can sign up for emails on the campaign web site and like the campaign’s page on Facebook (which jumped from 27 to over 600 fans in less than a week).
The issue will be on ballots in Colorado this November.
The President leads Romney 49 percent to 44 percent as unaffiliated voters swing to the incumbent.
DENVER _ President Barack Obama leads Gov. Mitt Romney 49 percent to 44 percent in the first survey of likely Colorado voters since the party conventions.
Obama’s five-point lead is due largely to growing support among the key demographic of unaffiliated voters, according to the second survey in a series of live-interview tracking polls released by Keating Research, Inc., Onsight Public Affairs and Project New America leading up to the November election.
“The fact that the race for Colorado is still very close may be the only good news for Mitt Romney coming out of the conventions,” said Mike Melanson, senior partner at OnSight Public Affairs. “Romney needed to improve his likability, but it appears Coloradans find him less likable than they did before the convention. Meanwhile, Obama has made significant gains among unaffiliated voters and maintained a solid lead among women.”
A poll conducted August 21-22 showed Obama with a four-point lead over Romney, 48 percent to 44 percent. Since that poll, Obama has added nine points to his advantage among unaffiliated voters, improving from a 50 percent to 36 percent margin in August to a 55-32 percent advantage in the latest survey.
A majority of Colorado voters, 51 percent, are now favorable toward Obama compared to 47 percent favorable toward Romney. Obama improved his standing with unaffiliated voters by four points, from 52 percent favorable and 43 percent unfavorable in August to a 55-42 split after the convention. But just 37 percent of unaffiliated voters view Romney favorably, while 59 percent say they have an unfavorable view of him. In August, the GOP challenger’s favorability split was 40 percent favorable, 56 percent unfavorable among unaffiliated voters.
“President Obama’s numbers are up among unaffiliated voters suggesting that the Democratic convention helped him connect with Colorado’s critical voting block,” said Jill Hanauer, CEO of Project New America. “The favorability gap between the President and Romney represent a key advantage going forward.”
Overall, Coloradans are paying attention to the race, with 56 percent of those polled saying they watched some or all of both candidates speeches. And regardless of whom they favor, voters are nearly twice as likely to predict a victory for Obama. Only 27 percent of those polled said Romney would win in November, compared to 52 percent predicting Obama. Obama also leads Romney by 10 points – 52 percent to 42 percent in the two suburban counties, Arapahoe and Jefferson, that are considered key indicators to winning in Colorado.
The candidates remain virtually tied among men – 46 percent for Obama and 45 percent for Romney – while women favor Obama 51 percent to 43 percent. Among whites, the candidates are tied at 46 percent, but 67 percent of Hispanics favor Obama.
The poll is based on 503 live telephone interviews with likely voters across Colorado on Monday and Tuesday of this week. For this sample of 503 interviews, the worst-case margin of error at the 95% level is plus or minus 4.4 percent. Respondents were chosen at random from a list of voters with phone numbers, including cell phones.
