Hillary Clinton holds a 5-point lead over Donald Trump on the eve of the 2016 election, according to a Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs poll released today.
In a poll of 605 likely voters, Clinton leads Trump 43% to 38%, while Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet leads Republican challenger Darryl Glenn 49% to 38%.
“At the top of the ticket, Trump is failing in two areas seen as critical in presidential election years,” said Chris Keating, president of Keating Research. “He trails Clinton by double digits in the suburban swing counties around Denver, and he performs even worse with Hispanic voters.”
The bellwether suburban Arapahoe and Jefferson counties tend to determine the outcome of elections in Colorado, and here Clinton leads by double digits (46% Clinton – 33% Trump). Clinton leads by nearly 3-to-1 among Hispanics (57% Clinton – 19% Trump).
The statewide survey of 605 likely general-election voters was conducted Nov. 2-3 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.
“Another difficulty for Trump is that he trails Clinton ‘Big League’ in support from unaffiliated voters, whose votes are critical for election-day success in statewide races in Colorado,” said Curtis Hubbard, a partner with OnSight Public Affairs.
Unaffiliated voters break Clinton’s way by a 12-point (Clinton 39% — Trump 27%) margin.
Clinton holds a large lead among voters age 18-49 (43% Clinton – 30% Trump), while Trump is winning older voters age 50+ (45% Trump – 42% Clinton).
“Voters age 50 and over account for well over 50% of the ballots cast in Colorado to date,” Hubbard said. “Any chance at a Trump victory in Colorado rests in the hands of voters ages 18-49. If they show up, Trump loses.”
Bennet holds comfortable lead
In the U.S. Senate race, Bennet has a comfortable, double digit 11-point lead over Glenn (49% Bennet – 38% Glenn) with 3% for the Libertarian Lilly Tang Williams, 2% Green Arn Menconi and 5% undecided.
Bennet holds large leads over Glenn across all key voter groups in Colorado including by nearly 2-to-1 among Unaffiliated voters (48% Bennet – 25% Glenn), by nearly 3-to-1 with Hispanics (65% Bennet – 24% Glenn), and Bennet is winning the majority of women (56% Bennet – 34% Glenn) while remaining virtually tied with men (42% Bennet – 43% Glenn).
Support for Broncos chances to repeat
With the election season winding down, it’s time to turn our attention to our beloved Broncos. Colorado voters are more likely to think the Broncos will win the Super Bowl this season – 42% believe compared to 37% who don’t think it will happen, while 21% don’t know.
Clinton voters are slightly more optimistic (42% believe to 37% don’t think it will happen) than Trump voters (40% believe to 39% don’t think it will happen), however those who aren’t for Trump or Clinton are the most optimistic about the Broncos chances (45% believe to 34% don’t think it will happen)!
This is the final poll in a series of Presidential tracking polls conducted in Colorado by Keating Research, Inc./OnSight Public Affairs leading up to the November 8, 2016 election. Keating/OnSight provides informative, accurate polling using live-interviewer telephone (cell and landline) surveys and was the most accurate in 2012 predicting Obama would win by 4 points in Colorado.
*Numbers may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.