The latest Keating-OnSight-Martin (KOM) poll of Colorado voters show headwinds for the re-election prospects of both President Donald Trump and Sen. Cory Gardner.
Results from our poll of 500 likely 2020 voters show:
Gardner and Trump both have steep hills to climb with Colorado voters as they pursue re-election. Notably, Gardner’s support among Republicans is significantly softer than support for Trump among the same group.
Overall, a majority (55%) of Colorado voters believe the state is headed in the right direction, and Gov. Jared Polis is an impressive +15 in the fav/unfav measure.
Two-thirds of Colorado voters say abortion should remain legal, which is a brutal headwind for proponents of a proposed anti-abortion ballot measure.
Another Blue Wave is on the horizon, as a higher percentage of Democrats say they will definitely vote (96%) compared to Republicans (92%).
“2020 is shaping up to be another strong year for Democrats given their own enthusiasm and unaffiliated voters’ continued dislike of both President Trump and Senator Gardner,” said OnSight’s Curtis Hubbard.
“Republicans are still looking for the right message and messengers for 2020,” said pollster Chris Keating. “Majorities of Democrats and unaffiliated voters continue to believe the state is headed in the right direction, believe abortion should be legal and hold unfavorable views of President Donald Trump.”
The survey was conducted June 24-27 and has a MOE of 4.4%.
A new statewide poll of 503 active voters shows a majority of Coloradans give high marks to their home state and its Democratic governor, and have strong reservations about President Donald Trump and many of the polices and issues put forward during his first 50 days in office.
Keating Research is recognized by Democrats and Republicans alike as providing extremely accurate polling in Colorado.
The Keating/OnSight poll provides informative, accurate results using live-interviewer telephone (cell and landline) surveys and was Colorado’s most accurate in the 2016 Presidential election, predicting Hillary Clinton would win the state by 5 points in Colorado.
What follows are highlights are from the new Keating/OnSight Colorado statewide poll conducted March 8-13, 2017:
Voters are optimistic about the direction of state and Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper
By nearly 2-to-1, Colorado voters say the state is heading in the right direction (58% right direction – 32% wrong direction), which is certainly a reflection of their positive feelings toward Colorado’s second-term Governor, John Hickenlooper. By roughly the same margin, Colorado voters are favorable toward Hickenlooper (57% favorable – 33% unfavorable).
President Donald Trump is not well-liked
Donald Trump, who lost Colorado to Hillary Clinton (43% to 48%), remains unpopular in Colorado (43% favorable – 55% unfavorable), including 45% of respondents who hold a “very unfavorable” view toward him. Opinions of Trump are distorted by voters’ partisan lenses – Democrats strongly dislike Trump (12% favorable – 87% unfavorable) and Republicans very much like him (83% favorable – 16% unfavorable), while the key voting block of unaffiliated voters are hostile territory for Trump (32% favorable – 64% unfavorable).
Trump’s presidency has gotten off to a decidedly rocky start, as nearly 5-of-10 Colorado voters think he is doing a lousy job: grading his performance with an F (38%) or D (10%). A minority of respondents – 36% – give Trump an A (19%) or B (17%).
Honesty is a key characteristic for any politician, and a majority – 52% – of Colorado voters think President Trump is “dishonest and tells lies”, while a minority – 40% – think he is “honest and tells the truth.” Suburban voters show a decided lack of confidence in Trump – a majority (55%) of voters in the five suburban counties of Arapahoe, Adams, Jefferson, Douglas and Broomfield say Trump is “dishonest and tells lies.”
Trump’s problems are dragging down Colorado Republican Sen. Cory Gardner
Currently, Colorado voters are divided on Sen. Cory Gardner (39% favorable – 38% unfavorable), compared to a more positive opinion of him before Trump was elected in July, 2016 (45% favorable – 28% unfavorable).
Colorado’s Democratic U.S. Senator Michael Bennet remains popular with 51% viewing him favorably compared to 29% unfavorable, which is the same as before Trump was elected in July, 2016 (51% favorable – 28% unfavorable).
Colorado voters disagree with what President Trump is saying about the media and President Obama
A majority – 62% – of Colorado voters do not believe that President Obama had the wires tapped in Trump Tower, while 20% believe it.
A majority – 57% – of Colorado voters disagree with President Trump’s statement that the news media is the enemy of the people, while 37% agree with it.
President Trump’s anti-immigrant positions are out of step with Colorado
A majority – 60% -– of Colorado voters oppose President Trump’s plan to build a wall on the Mexican border to keep out illegal immigrants, while 35% support the idea. Trump’s wall is opposed by a majority of men (53% oppose) and women (67% oppose), younger age 18-49 (71% oppose) and older age 50+ (51% oppose), and white (59% oppose) and Hispanics (70% oppose).
A majority — 53% – of Colorado voters oppose Trump’s travel ban that prevents citizens from Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen from entering the United States, while 42% support Trump’s new travel ban. Trump’s travel ban is particularly disliked by millennial voters age 18-34 (76% oppose the travel ban), while those age 65+ are supportive (56% support).
Colorado voters aren’t convinced Trump’s campaign communicated with Russia to influence outcome of the election
37% of Colorado voters believe Donald Trump’s campaign was in communication with Russia in order to influence the Presidential election, while nearly half (47%) say they were not, and 16% are unsure.
Colorado voters don’t want to repeal Obamacare
When asked about the Obamacare replacement plan recently released by Republicans in Congress, by a 13-point margin Colorado voters prefer to keep Obamacare (54%) rather than repeal Obamacare (41%). Attitudes toward Obamacare closely mirror the Presidential election – Clinton voters prefer to keep Obamacare (91%) and Trump voters prefer to repeal Obamacare (84%).
Colorado Voters want to increase the share of energy that comes from clean, renewable sources
8-of-10 voters say they favor increasing the share of Colorado’s energy that comes from clean, renewable sources like wind and solar power in order to create jobs and economic opportunity in rural Colorado, while only 14% oppose it. Increasing clean, renewable energy is a pure non-partisan issue, favored overwhelmingly by Democrats (95% favor), Unaffiliated (84% favor) and by two-thirds of Republicans.
Keating Research is recognized by Democrats and Republicans alike as providing extremely accurate polling in Colorado.
This polling data is based on 503 live-interviewer telephone surveys conducted March 8-13, 2017 among “active” voters statewide in Colorado. For this sample of 503 interviews the worst case margin of error at the 95% level is plus or minus 4.4%. Respondents were chosen at random from a list of voters with phone numbers: 261 surveys (52%) were conducted on cell-phone and 242 surveys (48%) were conducted on a land line.
It’s official: Colorado voters have chosen to make the state’s primary elections more fair and inclusive. The approval of both Propositions 107 and 108 has ensured that more than 1 million unaffiliated voters will now have the ability to participate in primaries. “This is a big win for democracy in Colorado. By passing both propositions 107 and 108, Colorado’s voters have proven once again the wisdom of government of the people, by the people and for the people,” said Campaign Chairman Kent Thiry. The newly approved presidential primary also enfranchises those who were left out by the caucus system: military service members, the disabled, working people, and families with young children. They will now have weeks to cast their ballot for presidential primary races in Colorado from the privacy of their own homes.
“Our hope as a business community is that by engaging all Coloradans in elections we will get back to rewarding elected officials who work together, compromise and find solutions to move our state forward,” said Kelly Brough, President and CEO of the Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce. “Democracy and Colorado work best when everyone is engaged and we look forward to the progress our state will make because of this important reform.”
Tonight’s results were a direct result of thousands of Coloradans who came together to work on the issue.
“I want to express my deepest gratitude to the campaign board, staff, our volunteers and all of our supporters who have made these wins tonight possible,” said Let Colorado Vote campaign manager Jesse Hassinger. “Colorado has a history of valuing participation in the election process, and tonight’s results continue the trend.”
Hillary Clinton holds a 5-point lead over Donald Trump on the eve of the 2016 election, according to a Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs poll released today.
In a poll of 605 likely voters, Clinton leads Trump 43% to 38%, while Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet leads Republican challenger Darryl Glenn 49% to 38%.
“At the top of the ticket, Trump is failing in two areas seen as critical in presidential election years,” said Chris Keating, president of Keating Research. “He trails Clinton by double digits in the suburban swing counties around Denver, and he performs even worse with Hispanic voters.”
The bellwether suburban Arapahoe and Jefferson counties tend to determine the outcome of elections in Colorado, and here Clinton leads by double digits (46% Clinton – 33% Trump). Clinton leads by nearly 3-to-1 among Hispanics (57% Clinton – 19% Trump).
The statewide survey of 605 likely general-election voters was conducted Nov. 2-3 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.
“Another difficulty for Trump is that he trails Clinton ‘Big League’ in support from unaffiliated voters, whose votes are critical for election-day success in statewide races in Colorado,” said Curtis Hubbard, a partner with OnSight Public Affairs.
Unaffiliated voters break Clinton’s way by a 12-point (Clinton 39% — Trump 27%) margin.
Clinton holds a large lead among voters age 18-49 (43% Clinton – 30% Trump), while Trump is winning older voters age 50+ (45% Trump – 42% Clinton).
“Voters age 50 and over account for well over 50% of the ballots cast in Colorado to date,” Hubbard said. “Any chance at a Trump victory in Colorado rests in the hands of voters ages 18-49. If they show up, Trump loses.”
Bennet holds comfortable lead
In the U.S. Senate race, Bennet has a comfortable, double digit 11-point lead over Glenn (49% Bennet – 38% Glenn) with 3% for the Libertarian Lilly Tang Williams, 2% Green Arn Menconi and 5% undecided.
Bennet holds large leads over Glenn across all key voter groups in Colorado including by nearly 2-to-1 among Unaffiliated voters (48% Bennet – 25% Glenn), by nearly 3-to-1 with Hispanics (65% Bennet – 24% Glenn), and Bennet is winning the majority of women (56% Bennet – 34% Glenn) while remaining virtually tied with men (42% Bennet – 43% Glenn).
Support for Broncos chances to repeat
With the election season winding down, it’s time to turn our attention to our beloved Broncos. Colorado voters are more likely to think the Broncos will win the Super Bowl this season – 42% believe compared to 37% who don’t think it will happen, while 21% don’t know.
Clinton voters are slightly more optimistic (42% believe to 37% don’t think it will happen) than Trump voters (40% believe to 39% don’t think it will happen), however those who aren’t for Trump or Clinton are the most optimistic about the Broncos chances (45% believe to 34% don’t think it will happen)!
This is the final poll in a series of Presidential tracking polls conducted in Colorado by Keating Research, Inc./OnSight Public Affairs leading up to the November 8, 2016 election. Keating/OnSight provides informative, accurate polling using live-interviewer telephone (cell and landline) surveys and was the most accurate in 2012 predicting Obama would win by 4 points in Colorado.
*Numbers may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.
The Yes on 107 and 108 campaign to reinstate a presidential primary and open all primaries to unaffiliated voters released a new ad to remind voters that inclusion isn’t just a nice idea; it’s on the ballot.
The new ad, called “Inclusion” showcases how great ideas — from the wheel, to rock ‘n’ roll, to innovations in science – come from collaboration and working together. Let Colorado Vote believes the same is true of democracy and elections, and that greater participation, by adding over one million new voices to the primary system, can make all the difference in Colorado.
Currently, over one-third of Colorado’s voters are unaffiliated. Colorado leads the nation in the growth of unaffiliated voters and with a completely closed primary system, which means Colorado disenfranchises a higher percentage of its population than almost any other state.
Colorado can do better by voting YES this fall on Proposition 107 to restore a presidential primary and YES on Proposition 108, to open taxpayer-funded primaries to unaffiliated voters.
The measures have drawn the support of Gov. John Hickenlooper and former Govs. Bill Ritter, Bill Owens, Roy Romer and Dick Lamm; and support from editorial boards at The Denver Post, The Colorado Springs Gazette, The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel, The Boulder Daily Camera, The Greeley Tribune, The Durango Herald and the Fort Collins Coloradoan, among others.
