by OnSight | Jul 2019 | Elections, politics, Polling, Romanoff
Keating Research and OnSight Public Affairs have teamed up once again to provide informative, accurate results using live-interviewer telephone surveys and was Colorado’s most accurate in the 2016 Presidential and the 2018 Gubernatorial in Colorado. The Colorado U.S. Senate Democratic Primary Voter Poll was conducted July 1-3, 2019, and is the first installment in the effort to track the 2020 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate in Colorado.
Highlights
- There is a top tier of 3 names, one of whom is not a declared candidate:
- Former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff leads the field, with 23% support.
- Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold, who is not a declared candidate, came in second with 15% support.
- Former Sen. Mike Johnston rounds out the top 3 with 12% support
- The next tier has work to do, as no candidate polls above 2%
- With 42% undecided, the race among Democrats to take on Republican Sen. Cory Gardner remains wide open.
“We were curious to see where Secretary of State Griswold would stack up in this survey,” said pollster Chris Keating. “The fact that an undeclared entrant could garner second reaffirms the fact that this race is wide open.”
“As the lone person in the poll to have run and won a statewide contest, it’s easy to see why Griswold’s name continues to be floated as a potential candidate,” said OnSight’s Curtis Hubbard.
The survey of 500 likely 2020 primary voters was conducted July 1-3 and has a MOE of 4.4%
The Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate is wide open
In a hypothetical match-up in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff leads the pack with 23% and an 8-point lead over Secretary of State Jena Griswold in second place with 15%, and former state Sen. Mike Johnston comes in third with 12%.
No other candidate garners more than 2% of the vote including Alice Madden (2%), John Walsh (2%) and Dan Baer (2%).
With 42% undecided, the race to take on Republican Sen. Cory Gardner in the General Election remains wide open. The fact that an undeclared entrant could garner second reaffirms this fact.
- Romanoff leads among older voters (ages 50+) with 29% of the vote, followed by Griswold with 12% and Johnston with 11%.
- Griswold leads among younger voters (ages 18-49) with 20% of the vote, followed by Johnston with 15% and Romanoff with 11%.
Jena Griswold had the highest net favorability ratings of all the candidates in this field
Griswold is the most well-liked by those who know her with a 7.5-to-1 ratio of 30% favorable to 4% unfavorable. Romanoff has a 3-to-1 ratio of 34% favorable to 11% unfavorable. Johnston also has a 3-to-1 ratio of 29% favorable to 9% unfavorable.
Colorado Senate DP Voter Poll July 2019 – TOPLINES FINAL
Next Senate Pac commissioned Keating Research to conduct the poll. Keating Research is recognized by Democrats and Republicans alike as providing extremely accurate election forecasting in Colorado. This polling data is based on 500 live-interviewer telephone surveys conducted July 1-3, 2019, among likely 2020 Democratic Primary voters statewide in Colorado: 60% conducted on cell-phone and 40% conducted on a land line. Registered Democrats are 70% of the sample and registered Unaffiliated are 30% of the sample. For this sample of 500, the worst case margin of error at the 95% level is plus or minus 4.4%.
by admin | Jul 2019 | Elections, politics, Polling
The latest Keating-OnSight-Martin (KOM) poll of Colorado voters show headwinds for the re-election prospects of both President Donald Trump and Sen. Cory Gardner.
Results from our poll of 500 likely 2020 voters show:
- Gardner and Trump both have steep hills to climb with Colorado voters as they pursue re-election. Notably, Gardner’s support among Republicans is significantly softer than support for Trump among the same group.
- Overall, a majority (55%) of Colorado voters believe the state is headed in the right direction, and Gov. Jared Polis is an impressive +15 in the fav/unfav measure.
- Two-thirds of Colorado voters say abortion should remain legal, which is a brutal headwind for proponents of a proposed anti-abortion ballot measure.
- Another Blue Wave is on the horizon, as a higher percentage of Democrats say they will definitely vote (96%) compared to Republicans (92%).
“2020 is shaping up to be another strong year for Democrats given their own enthusiasm and unaffiliated voters’ continued dislike of both President Trump and Senator Gardner,” said OnSight’s Curtis Hubbard.
“Republicans are still looking for the right message and messengers for 2020,” said pollster Chris Keating. “Majorities of Democrats and unaffiliated voters continue to believe the state is headed in the right direction, believe abortion should be legal and hold unfavorable views of President Donald Trump.”
The survey was conducted June 24-27 and has a MOE of 4.4%.
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by OnSight | Jan 2019 | Polling
Keating Research and OnSight Public Affairs have once again teamed up on the Keating–OnSight (KO) Colorado Poll™ which provides informative, accurate results using live-interviewer telephone surveys and was Colorado’s most accurate in the 2016 Presidential and 2018 Mid-term elections. The new Keating-Onsight Colorado Poll conducted January 20-24, 2019 is the most recent installment in our effort to track Colorado voter attitudes toward Donald Trump, the government shutdown and expanding the wall along the U.S. – Mexico border.
Trump receives a D or F from more than half of voters.
As we arrive at the midway point in the Donald Trump’s Presidency, a majority — 53% — of Colorado voters grade the job he is doing as a D or F, while the minority — 35% — give him an A or B. On a 4-point scale, that translates into a 1.6 grade point average, a solid D+.
A majority of Colorado voters oppose Trump’s plan to spend $5.6 billion to expand the wall at the Mexican border.
The deal that ended the shutdown didn’t provide any funding for Trump’s border wall and the government will remain open for the next three weeks while the debate continues. Here in Colorado though it’s clear: voters oppose expanding the wall by a 20 point margin – a 58% majority oppose Trump’s plan to spend $5.6 billion to expand the wall on the Mexican border, while only 38% support it.
Trump is held responsible for the government shutdown.
The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has ended and Trump appears to be the loser over the course of the past 35 days. A majority — 53% — of Colorado voters put the blame for the shutdown on Donald Trump, while one-third —33% — say Democrats in Congress are responsible, and 11% say they are both responsible.
Voters continue to dislike Donald Trump.
Colorado voters have remained consistently unfavorable toward Donald Trump over the past two years. In this poll, 60% of Colorado voters feel unfavorably toward Donald Trump — one point worse than the 59% unfavorable we saw in our poll just prior to the mid-term election, which was largely seen as a referendum on Trump. Democrats almost universally dislike Trump (95% unfavorable – 4% favorable) and Unaffiliated voters dislike him by 2-to-1 (65% unfavorable – 33% favorable), while he continues to appeal to his Republican base (84% favorable to 15% favorable).
Cory Gardner remains upside-down on his favorability.
Colorado’s Republican U.S. Senator Cory Gardner, who is up for re-election along with Donald
Trump in November 2020, is in troubled waters with 43% of voters holding unfavorable views
toward him and 39% favorable. In fact, the same percentage of voters — 39% — hold favorable views of Gardner and Donald Trump.
Jared Polis starts off on the right foot.
Colorado’s newly elected Governor, Jared Polis, begins his first term in good standing with
Colorado voters with 53% favorable toward him and 33% unfavorable, a very good ratio of 1.6 to 1. Polis’ 53% favorable rating is the same percentage that carried him to victory in November. Polis is very well liked by his base Democrats – 87% favorable to only 2% unfavorable.
Keating Research is recognized by Democrats and Republicans alike as providing extremely accurate polling in Colorado. This polling data is based on 500 live-interviewer telephone surveys conducted January 20-24, 2019 among “active” voters statewide in Colorado: 74% conducted on cell-phone and 26% conducted on a land line. For this sample of 500 interviews the worst case margin of error at the 95% level is plus or minus 4.4%.
View Crosstabs
View Topline Results
by OnSight | Mar 2017 | Elections, politics, Polling, Trends
A new statewide poll of 503 active voters shows a majority of Coloradans give high marks to their home state and its Democratic governor, and have strong reservations about President Donald Trump and many of the polices and issues put forward during his first 50 days in office.
View toplines
Keating Research is recognized by Democrats and Republicans alike as providing extremely accurate polling in Colorado.
The Keating/OnSight poll provides informative, accurate results using live-interviewer telephone (cell and landline) surveys and was Colorado’s most accurate in the 2016 Presidential election, predicting Hillary Clinton would win the state by 5 points in Colorado.
What follows are highlights are from the new Keating/OnSight Colorado statewide poll conducted March 8-13, 2017:
Voters are optimistic about the direction of state and Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper
By nearly 2-to-1, Colorado voters say the state is heading in the right direction (58% right direction – 32% wrong direction), which is certainly a reflection of their positive feelings toward Colorado’s second-term Governor, John Hickenlooper. By roughly the same margin, Colorado voters are favorable toward Hickenlooper (57% favorable – 33% unfavorable).
President Donald Trump is not well-liked
Donald Trump, who lost Colorado to Hillary Clinton (43% to 48%), remains unpopular in Colorado (43% favorable – 55% unfavorable), including 45% of respondents who hold a “very unfavorable” view toward him. Opinions of Trump are distorted by voters’ partisan lenses – Democrats strongly dislike Trump (12% favorable – 87% unfavorable) and Republicans very much like him (83% favorable – 16% unfavorable), while the key voting block of unaffiliated voters are hostile territory for Trump (32% favorable – 64% unfavorable).
Trump’s presidency has gotten off to a decidedly rocky start, as nearly 5-of-10 Colorado voters think he is doing a lousy job: grading his performance with an F (38%) or D (10%). A minority of respondents – 36% – give Trump an A (19%) or B (17%).
Honesty is a key characteristic for any politician, and a majority – 52% – of Colorado voters think President Trump is “dishonest and tells lies”, while a minority – 40% – think he is “honest and tells the truth.” Suburban voters show a decided lack of confidence in Trump – a majority (55%) of voters in the five suburban counties of Arapahoe, Adams, Jefferson, Douglas and Broomfield say Trump is “dishonest and tells lies.”
Trump’s problems are dragging down Colorado Republican Sen. Cory Gardner
Currently, Colorado voters are divided on Sen. Cory Gardner (39% favorable – 38% unfavorable), compared to a more positive opinion of him before Trump was elected in July, 2016 (45% favorable – 28% unfavorable).
Colorado’s Democratic U.S. Senator Michael Bennet remains popular with 51% viewing him favorably compared to 29% unfavorable, which is the same as before Trump was elected in July, 2016 (51% favorable – 28% unfavorable).
Colorado voters disagree with what President Trump is saying about the media and President Obama
- A majority – 62% – of Colorado voters do not believe that President Obama had the wires tapped in Trump Tower, while 20% believe it.
- A majority – 57% – of Colorado voters disagree with President Trump’s statement that the news media is the enemy of the people, while 37% agree with it.
President Trump’s anti-immigrant positions are out of step with Colorado
- A majority – 60% -– of Colorado voters oppose President Trump’s plan to build a wall on the Mexican border to keep out illegal immigrants, while 35% support the idea. Trump’s wall is opposed by a majority of men (53% oppose) and women (67% oppose), younger age 18-49 (71% oppose) and older age 50+ (51% oppose), and white (59% oppose) and Hispanics (70% oppose).
- A majority — 53% – of Colorado voters oppose Trump’s travel ban that prevents citizens from Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen from entering the United States, while 42% support Trump’s new travel ban. Trump’s travel ban is particularly disliked by millennial voters age 18-34 (76% oppose the travel ban), while those age 65+ are supportive (56% support).
Colorado voters aren’t convinced Trump’s campaign communicated with Russia to influence outcome of the election
- 37% of Colorado voters believe Donald Trump’s campaign was in communication with Russia in order to influence the Presidential election, while nearly half (47%) say they were not, and 16% are unsure.
Colorado voters don’t want to repeal Obamacare
When asked about the Obamacare replacement plan recently released by Republicans in Congress, by a 13-point margin Colorado voters prefer to keep Obamacare (54%) rather than repeal Obamacare (41%). Attitudes toward Obamacare closely mirror the Presidential election – Clinton voters prefer to keep Obamacare (91%) and Trump voters prefer to repeal Obamacare (84%).
Colorado Voters want to increase the share of energy that comes from clean, renewable sources
8-of-10 voters say they favor increasing the share of Colorado’s energy that comes from clean, renewable sources like wind and solar power in order to create jobs and economic opportunity in rural Colorado, while only 14% oppose it. Increasing clean, renewable energy is a pure non-partisan issue, favored overwhelmingly by Democrats (95% favor), Unaffiliated (84% favor) and by two-thirds of Republicans.
Keating Research is recognized by Democrats and Republicans alike as providing extremely accurate polling in Colorado.
This polling data is based on 503 live-interviewer telephone surveys conducted March 8-13, 2017 among “active” voters statewide in Colorado. For this sample of 503 interviews the worst case margin of error at the 95% level is plus or minus 4.4%. Respondents were chosen at random from a list of voters with phone numbers: 261 surveys (52%) were conducted on cell-phone and 242 surveys (48%) were conducted on a land line.
by OnSight | Nov 2016 | Elections, Polling
Contact:
Curtis Hubbard
(303) 908-2378
curtis@onsightpa.com
Hillary Clinton holds a 5-point lead over Donald Trump on the eve of the 2016 election, according to a Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs poll released today.
In a poll of 605 likely voters, Clinton leads Trump 43% to 38%, while Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet leads Republican challenger Darryl Glenn 49% to 38%.
“At the top of the ticket, Trump is failing in two areas seen as critical in presidential election years,” said Chris Keating, president of Keating Research. “He trails Clinton by double digits in the suburban swing counties around Denver, and he performs even worse with Hispanic voters.”
The bellwether suburban Arapahoe and Jefferson counties tend to determine the outcome of elections in Colorado, and here Clinton leads by double digits (46% Clinton – 33% Trump). Clinton leads by nearly 3-to-1 among Hispanics (57% Clinton – 19% Trump).
The statewide survey of 605 likely general-election voters was conducted Nov. 2-3 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.
“Another difficulty for Trump is that he trails Clinton ‘Big League’ in support from unaffiliated voters, whose votes are critical for election-day success in statewide races in Colorado,” said Curtis Hubbard, a partner with OnSight Public Affairs.
Unaffiliated voters break Clinton’s way by a 12-point (Clinton 39% — Trump 27%) margin.
Clinton holds a large lead among voters age 18-49 (43% Clinton – 30% Trump), while Trump is winning older voters age 50+ (45% Trump – 42% Clinton).
“Voters age 50 and over account for well over 50% of the ballots cast in Colorado to date,” Hubbard said. “Any chance at a Trump victory in Colorado rests in the hands of voters ages 18-49. If they show up, Trump loses.”
Bennet holds comfortable lead
In the U.S. Senate race, Bennet has a comfortable, double digit 11-point lead over Glenn (49% Bennet – 38% Glenn) with 3% for the Libertarian Lilly Tang Williams, 2% Green Arn Menconi and 5% undecided.
Bennet holds large leads over Glenn across all key voter groups in Colorado including by nearly 2-to-1 among Unaffiliated voters (48% Bennet – 25% Glenn), by nearly 3-to-1 with Hispanics (65% Bennet – 24% Glenn), and Bennet is winning the majority of women (56% Bennet – 34% Glenn) while remaining virtually tied with men (42% Bennet – 43% Glenn).
Support for Broncos chances to repeat
With the election season winding down, it’s time to turn our attention to our beloved Broncos. Colorado voters are more likely to think the Broncos will win the Super Bowl this season – 42% believe compared to 37% who don’t think it will happen, while 21% don’t know.
Clinton voters are slightly more optimistic (42% believe to 37% don’t think it will happen) than Trump voters (40% believe to 39% don’t think it will happen), however those who aren’t for Trump or Clinton are the most optimistic about the Broncos chances (45% believe to 34% don’t think it will happen)!
This is the final poll in a series of Presidential tracking polls conducted in Colorado by Keating Research, Inc./OnSight Public Affairs leading up to the November 8, 2016 election. Keating/OnSight provides informative, accurate polling using live-interviewer telephone (cell and landline) surveys and was the most accurate in 2012 predicting Obama would win by 4 points in Colorado.
*Numbers may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.
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